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The 49ers can play D, but when they get in the red zone, the offense disappears. |
This article was posted on ESPN.com's NFL Insider page (which we at the show have a subscription to. For those that don't, enjoy the article). One might ask why I, Da Man, would post such a story about the 49ers as a die hard 49ers fan, especially one pointing out their "fatal flaw". Simple. Because it's true (and a good read).
If you watched only the highlights of the Arizona Cardinals' 21-19 victory over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, and you saw Early Doucet and Larry Fitzgerald each score touchdowns of 40-plus yards, you could be forgiven for blaming the loss on the 49ers' defense. On the whole, however, the defense unit played well. The real culprit in San Francisco's defeat was an offense that again was at its worst in the most important part of the field.Aside from the two long touchdowns, the 49ers' defense shut down Arizona's offense. The Cardinals finished with only 12 first downs. They went 3-for-14 on third downs, and San Francisco collected two sacks and three turnovers. San Francisco's defense repeatedly gave the offense good field position, but Alex Smith and company could do little with those opportunities.San Francisco started four drives in Arizona territory and another at its 43. The results of those five possessions: one touchdown, three field goals and one missed kick. Three times the 49ers drove inside the Arizona 20, and three times they scored field goals instead of touchdowns. They tried three runs in the red zone for a total of three yards, losing yardage twice. Smith threw eight red zone passes. Six of them were incomplete, and the two completions gained only 12 yards. In a game that was ultimately decided by just two points, those failures loomed large.Unfortunately for San Francisco, that's nothing new. The 49ers have scored touchdowns on just 36 percent of their trips to the red zone this seasons, the lowest rate in the league. There's plenty of blame to go around here. Whether passing or running, the 49ers are near the bottom of the league in average yards, first down percentage and bad play rate (turnovers or plays that lose yardage) when they get close to the goal line (see chart).Is there a fix to this problem? For starters, the 49ers would be well served to pass more often once they cross the opponent's 20. San Francisco has rushed the ball on 55.1 percent of all red zone plays. Only the Oakland Raiders and Houston Texans run the ball more often at that end of the field. The 49ers certainly aren't great when passing in the red zone, but they've fared better throwing the ball than they have running it, especially when it comes to avoiding disaster. Based on their play distribution against the Cardinals, the 49ers may have already figured this out.Specifically, San Francisco needs to throw more red zone passes to Vernon Davis. The tight end had eight touchdowns in 13 red zone targets in 2009 and four scores in 12 targets in 2010. This season, Davis has seen only five red zone passes and none since Week 11. He's caught each of those passes, three for touchdowns. So why isn't Davis a bigger part of the offense? Six other players on the roster have five or more red zone targets this season, led by Michael Crabtree's 12, and those six men have caught a total -- a total -- of two touchdown passes.The 49ers can also make a simple change to run more effectively in the red zone: Less Frank Gore, more Kendall Hunter. Gore has 47 red zone carries this season for 2.1 yards apiece and five touchdowns, and he has been stuffed for no gain or a loss 13 times. Hunter, meanwhile, has only 13 red zone carries. He's averaging 3.1 yards on those runs, with two touchdowns and three stuffs.Perhaps the only man in the Bay Area happy with all this is David Akers. So many 49ers drives have stalled short of the end zone that the kicker is on the verge of setting season records for field goals and attempts. He needs only four field goals to match Neil Rackers' record of 40 set in 2005 with Arizona. That could happen on Monday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers -- Akers has already kicked four field goals in a game five times this season. And if he gets eight more field goal attempts in the final three games, he'll become the first man ever with 50 attempts in a season.The 49ers, of course, would just as soon keep Akers on the sideline and out of the record book. When you play defense like San Francisco does, you can beat some teams with a barrage of field goals. But it wasn't enough to beat Arizona. It won't be enough to take out Pittsburgh. And if the 49ers can't find a way to put the ball in the end zone, they'll find that it won't be enough to win in the playoffs, either. --Vince Verhei
-DM
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